MELISSA Advisory

Expires:No;;617412
WTNT33 KNHC 311442
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Advisory Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 31 2025
 
...MELISSA BECOMES A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.0N 60.5W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 48 MPH...78 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
None.
 
A brief period of heavy rain and gusty winds is possible over the
southern Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland tonight. For more
information on impacts in Canada, see the Canadian Hurricane Center
website at https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone 
Melissa was located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 60.5 West. 
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 48 mph 
(78 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue into 
Saturday, followed by a gradual slowdown and turn toward the 
east-northeast later this weekend. On the forecast track, the center 
of Melissa is expected to pass to the southeast of the Avalon 
Peninsula of Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone tonight.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 
few days.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Gusty winds are possible over the southern Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland tonight.
 
RAINFALL: A brief period of heavy rain is possible over the southern
Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland tonight.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Bermuda, the
Northeastern United States coast and portions of Atlantic Canada
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be 
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, 
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 


Expires:No;;617365
WTNT23 KNHC 311441
TCMAT3
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132025
1500 UTC FRI OCT 31 2025
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N  60.5W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT  42 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  90SE  60SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 140SE  90SW  30NW.
34 KT.......180NE 240SE 200SW  90NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 360SE 480SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N  60.5W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.5N  62.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 43.5N  55.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  70SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 140SE 100SW   0NW.
34 KT...200NE 300SE 290SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 49.4N  48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 80NE 130SE  90SW   0NW.
34 KT...210NE 390SE 290SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 53.2N  41.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 110SE  80SW   0NW.
34 KT...200NE 390SE 290SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 55.0N  35.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  70SE  50SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 390SE 300SW 210NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 56.2N  29.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE  40SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 300SE 240SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 57.5N  24.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 210SE 210SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 60.5N  16.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 130SE   0SW   0NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N  60.5W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE 
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN