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SAM Advisory
Expires:No;;144208
WTNT33 KNHC 091746
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
100 PM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022
...JULIA MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NICARAGUA, APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
COAST...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 86.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Guatemala
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located inland near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 86.2 West. Julia
is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today, with a slightly slower
west-northwestward motion tonight and Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Julia is expected to continue moving over
Nicaragua today and emerge off the Pacific coast by this evening.
Julia is then expected to move very near to and parallel to the
Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala tonight and
Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
day or two, but Julia is still expected to be a tropical storm when
it moves near the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El
Salvador tonight and Monday. Julia is expected to dissipate near
the coast of Guatemala by Monday night.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific
coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador within the warning
area beginning this afternoon through Monday morning. Tropical
storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast of Guatemala
within the watch area on Monday.
RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:
Nicaragua and El Salvador...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres, Providencia, and western Panama...an additional 2 to 4
inches, isolated 12 inch storm total amounts.
Southern Guatemala and Costa Rica...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12
inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across Central America today and Monday. Flash flooding is
anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this
week.
SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
and San Andres, and the coast of Central America. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
The next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT will be issued under
Eastern Pacific AWIPS header MIATCPEP3 and WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Expires:No;;137308
WTNT23 KNHC 091442
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022
1500 UTC SUN OCT 09 2022
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF HONDURAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA
* PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS
* COAST OF EL SALVADOR
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 85.4W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..165NE 135SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 85.4W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 84.7W
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 12.5N 87.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 13.2N 89.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.0N 91.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 85.4W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 09/1800Z
FUTURE FORECAST INFORMATION ON JULIA CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP3...WMO HEADER
WTPZ23 KNHC.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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