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Latest Atlantic Hurricane Tracks


Tropical Storm DOLLY Tracking Data
Date: 01-02 SEP 2014
Tropical Storm DOLLY
ADV  LAT    LON      TIME     WIND  PR  STAT
  1  20.10  -93.60 09/01/21Z   25  1009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 1A  20.50  -93.70 09/02/00Z   25  1008 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  2  21.00  -93.90 09/02/03Z   25  1007 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 2A  22.40  -94.40 09/02/06Z   40  1007 TROPICAL STORM
  3  22.60  -94.80 09/02/09Z   40  1005 TROPICAL STORM
 3A  23.00  -95.70 09/02/12Z   45  1005 TROPICAL STORM
  4  23.40  -96.50 09/02/15Z   45  1005 TROPICAL STORM
 4A  22.00  -96.50 09/02/18Z   45  1007 TROPICAL STORM
  5  22.00  -97.00 09/02/21Z   40  1004 TROPICAL STORM
+12  22.00  -98.30 09/03/06Z   35     - TROPICAL STORM
+24  22.00  -99.50 09/03/18Z   30     - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
+36  22.00 -100.50 09/04/06Z   25     - TROPICAL DEPRESSION


Type   Pressure (mb) Winds (mph) Winds (knots) Surge (Feet)
Tropical Depression   ----- < 39 < 34 -----
Tropical Storm   ----- 39 - 73 34 - 63 -----
Hurricane 1   > 980 74 - 95 64 - 82 4 - 5
Hurricane 2   965 - 980 96 - 110 83 - 95 6 - 8
Hurricane 3   945 - 965 111 - 130 96 - 112 9 - 12
Hurricane 4   920 - 945 131 - 155 113 - 134 13 - 18
Hurricane 5   < 920 > 155 > 135 > 18

Latest Tropical Advisories from
The National Hurricane Center

Tropical Storm DOLLY Advisory



138 
WTNT25 KNHC 021431
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING SOUTH OF CABO ROJO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N  96.5W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N  96.5W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N  95.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.0N  97.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 24.5N  99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 24.8N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N  96.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 


715 
WTNT45 KNHC 021438
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

North-northwesterly vertical shear continues to affect the tropical
storm, and the low-level center is located near the northwestern
edge of a large mass of deep convection.  Arc clouds are also noted
to be propagating northward from the system which is indicative of
the presence of some dry air at mid levels.  Based on observations
from the aircraft mission from earlier this morning, the current
intensity is held at 45 kt, which is a little above the latest
Dvorak estimates.  Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into
Dolly is scheduled in a few hours to check the intensity.  Since the
system has been able to intensify overnight in spite of the shear,
some additional strengthening is certainly possible before
landfall. Weakening after the center moves inland could be more
rapid than indicated here, due to the mountainous terrain of
northeastern Mexico.

The motion has been somewhat faster than earlier estimates and is
now near 300/14 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the north of Dolly should
cause a continued west-northwestward motion for the next 24 hours
or so and, based on the faster initial motion, the center is likely
to cross the coast somewhat earlier than indicated in previous
advisories.  The current official track forecast is a little ahead
of the model guidance but still shows a decrease in forward speed
through 36 hours.

The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 10 inches in a few
locations.  These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain.  This threat will
continue even after the center moves inland.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 23.4N  96.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 24.0N  97.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 24.5N  99.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/0000Z 24.8N 100.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch



601 
WTNT35 KNHC 021432
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

...DOLLY CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 96.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING SOUTH OF CABO ROJO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST.  DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR
THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING...AND
MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER
REACHES THE COAST.  WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THIS RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Last updated Tue Sep 2 16:16:03 2014